Why Do Polls Suggest Texas Is The Most Hated State In The Union – Gov. Greg Abbott extended his lead to seven points over Beth O’Rourke, with a large majority of voters saying they would not change their minds. Election Day is November 8.
SAN ANTONIO – A new Texas poll shows that GOP candidates will again win statewide races in November, a feat Republicans have achieved in every election cycle since 1996.
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“Texas Decides” is a joint effort between the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (THPF), KENS 5 and its sister stations TEGNA Texas WFAA in Dallas, KHOU in Houston, and KVUE in Austin. Based on a poll of 1,172 likely Texas voters, conducted September 6-15, 2022. Confidence interval is +/- 2.9%. The report examines voting intentions for the Texas elections in November 2022.
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The first part of this poll, posted here, looks at the top races in Texas for the upcoming election. Parts two and three, which will be released later this week, will focus on Hispanic attitudes toward the candidates and culture war issues.
Poll results show that Governor Greg Abbott leads his Democratic rival, Beth O’Rourke, 51% to 44% in the Texas governor’s race, with a majority of the votes. Only three percent of participants were unsure who to vote for in the state’s top race.
The data provides some bright spots for Democrats. Young voters will need to break 2020 turnout records to lift Democrats above most Republicans.
Ken Paxton, the current attorney general, is in the tightest race of any Republican statewide, but he still leads Democrat Rochelle Garza, 47% to 42%, in the poll.
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The forecast for the lieutenant governor’s race mirrors the numbers for the attorney general’s race. Incumbent Dan Patrick leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier 48% to 42%.
A few Republican lawmakers and district judges have endorsed Collier, but politicians who cross party lines to support Democrats are not well known across the state.
Jones says the national Democratic Party is unlikely to pump a lot of money into statewide races, meaning Texas Democrats will largely be left to fend for themselves.
However, the party will have a special interest in San Antonio, which represents the state’s only two competitive races for the U.S. House of Representatives.
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South Texans will likely see a stream of ads for U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar and his Republican running mate, Casey Garcia, in the 28th District.
There will also be announcements for newcomers Michelle Vallejo and Monica de la Cruz, who will represent the United States. Huisvik 15.
Jones says Democrats will also work to maintain control of district judges in Bexar and Harris counties and hope to shake up the judiciary in Tarrant County.
The poll showed Republican incumbent Greg Abbott with a seven-point lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke among likely voters (51% vs. 44%). Among the most likely (almost certain) voters, the difference rises to 10 points (53% to 43%). Only 1% of voters in both categories say (likely/very likely) they will vote for Libertarian Mark Tibbetts and Green Party candidate Delilah Barrios.
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“Governor Abbott’s strength among rural and Anglo voters continues to reinforce his unyielding structural support in the 2022 race for Texas governor,” THPF Director Jason Villalba said of the poll results. “While O’Rourke has proven to be a worthy and hard-working opponent, unless there is a significant change in the makeup of the electorate in November, Governor Abbott will remain a political leader and opinion leader in Texas politics. Only new voters will do that. He could turn the tide.”
Perhaps the poll’s most important finding in the gubernatorial race is the fact that voters appear constrained in their choices, with little room to maneuver in November. In fact, 95% of all likely voters who say they will vote for Abbott say they are “confident” about their vote choice. On the other hand, 94% of all likely voters who would support O’Rourke say they are “sure” about the choice.
When you break down support across races, Abbott has a nearly two-to-one advantage over O’Rourke among white voters, where the incumbent has a choice between 63% and his opponent 33%. However, O’Rourke has a strong lead among black voters, rising from 79% to 16% for Abbott. The margin of support is smaller among Hispanic voters, with 53% planning to vote for O’Rourke and 39% for Abbott.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Republican incumbent Dan Patrick (48%) has a six-point lead over Democrat Mike Colyer (42%) among likely voters. Patrick also has an eight-point lead over Collier among most likely (almost certain) voters, 50% to 42%. Meanwhile, 2% of likely voters and 3% of likely (almost certain) voters plan to support Libertarian Shana Steele.
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As for voters who are “sure” of their voting choice in the lieutenant governor’s race, 95% say they will vote for Patrick and 91% say they will vote for Collier. In other words, only 5% and 9% said they would change their minds.
In the Attorney General election, Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat Rochelle Garza by five points (47% to 42%) among likely voters and by seven points among likely (almost certain) voters (49% to 42%) with 3%. And the most likely (almost certainly) voters plan to vote for Libertarian Mark Ashe.
In this race, only 8% of likely voters and 6% of most likely (almost certain) voters are undecided.
“(A potential silver lining) for Beto O’Rourke could be that his mobilization efforts (in the governor’s race) bring the Democratic vote closer enough to allow fellow Democrat Rochelle Garza to unseat Ken Paxton in the attorney general’s race,” Mark Bee said. Jones, director of research and analysis at the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.
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However, Jones says Garza is not currently raising enough money to buy the ad time she likely needs to properly present herself to Texas voters.
In the race for Texas Comptroller, Republican candidate Glenn Hegar leads Democrat Janet Dodding by eight points (46% to 38%) among likely voters and by 10 points among most likely (almost certain) voters (49% to 39%). Only 3% of voters in both categories say they would support liberal Alonzo Echevarria Garza.
In the race for Land Commissioner, Republican Don Buckingham leads by eight points over Democrat Jay Kleberg (46% to 38%) among likely voters and 12 points among most likely (almost certain) voters (50% to 38%). In this race, 2% of likely voters and 1% of almost certain voters said they would support Green Party candidate Alfred Mollison.
Republican incumbent Sid Miller (48%) has a seven-point lead over Democrat Susan Hayes (41%) among likely voters in the Agriculture Commissioner election. Miller’s lead rose to 11 points (51% to 40%) among nearly all voters.
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In the race for Railroad Commissioner, Republican incumbent Wayne Christian leads Democrat Luke Warford by seven points (44% to 37%) among likely voters and by 10 points (47% to 37%) among most likely (almost certain) voters. Here, 4% of likely and almost certain voters say they will support Liberal Jaime Diez, while 1% of both groups say they will vote for the Green Party’s Crow Hunter.
According to the Texas Decides poll, the three political figures Texas voters are most likely to view favorably are Governor Greg Abbott (52%), Senator Ted Cruz (49%), and former President Donald Trump (49%).
The three political figures most likely to be viewed unfavorably by Texas voters are Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (67%), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (60%), and Vice President Kamala Harris (58%).
Former San Antonio Mayor and former U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro was viewed favorably by 32% of respondents, unfavorably by 35%, and 33% said they did not know him well enough to offer an opinion.
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His brother, current U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, who represents the 20th U.S. District in San Antonio, is viewed favorably by 29%, compared to 32%, and 39% said they had no opinion. AUSTIN, Texas – (Texas Tribune) – Beto O’Rourke is running for governor of Texas, challenging Republican Greg Abbott in a showdown between two of Texas’ biggest politicians.
“I’m trying to serve the people of Texas and I want to make sure that we have a governor who serves everyone, who helps this state come together to do the really big things that lie ahead of us, who goes beyond petty politics. Division and politics go. By Greg Abbott,” O’Rourke said in an interview with the Texas Tribune. “It’s time for a change.”
The former El Paso congressman, 2018 U.S. Senate candidate and 2020 presidential hopeful said he ran for governor to improve public schools, health care and jobs in Texas. But O’Rourke took sharp aim at Abbott’s record, citing new laws he supported this year that would ban most abortions in Texas, tighten voting rules and allow the illegal carrying of handguns. He also criticized Abbott for February’s power outages, which left much of the state without power in subzero temperatures, and his response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has recently focused on anti-vaccine and mask mandates.
In a video announcing his campaign Monday morning, O’Rourke focused sharply on the network’s failings, saying Texans had been “failed by those elected to serve and care for them.” O’Rourke said in an interview