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Intraday patterns of liquidity on the Warsaw Stock Exchange before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic
Department of Economic and Financial Analysis, University of Economics in Katowice, 1 Maja Street 50, 40-287 Katowice, Poland
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Department of Banking and Financial Markets, University of Economics in Katowice, 1 Maja Street 50, 40-287 Katowice, Poland
Received: 27 December 2021 / Revised: 10 February 2022 / Accepted: 10 February 2022 / Published: 16 February 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Explaining Volatility Patterns and Speculation Incentives in Sophisticated Investments by Behavioral Finance)
A highly significant feature of the stock market is its efficiency, which is associated with information efficiency. However, the liquidity of the stock in the market is its essential characteristic. The inflow of information in highly liquid markets allows the maintenance of a high information efficiency. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many aspects related to stock markets, including their liquidity. The impact of the pandemic is so multidimensional that there are still areas that need to be investigated. One of them is the intraday liquidity pattern in the stock markets. Therefore, this article aims to verify the existence of intraday liquidity patterns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in three periods: before, during and after the panic caused by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results confirmed the existence of a U-shaped intraday distribution of the number of transactions and their trade. This result highlights the importance of the first and last minutes of a trading session. The COVID-19 pandemic led to the dominance of WSE transactions by small individual investors who, fearing the loss of value of their assets, sold them on the stock exchange. In the pandemic, the average percentage change between transactions has increased.
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Liquidity is one of the fundamental characteristics that describe a stock market. This notion is widely discussed in the scientific literature, especially in terms of liquidity measurements (Chang et al. 2018; Xu et al. 2022), liquidity patterns (Angerer et al. 2018; Weigerding and Hanke 2018) or information efficiency determined by market liquidity (Miloș et al. 2021). At its simplest, liquidity is understood as the time required to exchange an asset for money (Ranaldo 2001). The provision of liquidity through the viability of an order-driven market lies in the profitability of liquidity trading (Biais et al. 1995; Ranaldo 2001). The advancement of information technology allows for real-time transactions and thus has ensured more liquidity. Therefore, it increased market efficiency as investors were able to monitor stock prices on a continuous basis, as well as make decisions as soon as they received new information (Amihud and Mendelson 1987).
The digitalization of trading in securities has increased the availability of data, thus making it possible to more precisely explore certain relationships during trading (Jin et al. 2019). One of the most important market features is the analysis of trading time and intraday financial studies (Ranaldo 2001). The availability of intraday data allows the exploration of market microstructure (Kholisoh and Hermawati 2011). Angel et al. (2020) emphasized the value of studies on understanding intraday patterns in developing markets. The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) represents a stock market that is developing in terms of participants, volume and available financial instruments (Włosik 2017; Kubiczek 2020). Furthermore, WSE is the largest and one of the emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe (Glavina 2015; Będowska-Sójka and Kilber 2019; Tuszkiewicz 2022). It is also a stock exchange of particular importance in the region (Buszko et al. 2021). However, there is no study to date that examines the issue of intraday patterns on the WSE and includes potential COVID-19 impact (for another study regarding intraday patterns on the WSE see Będowska-Sójka 2013). This article partially fills this research gap by examining intraday patterns in transactions in terms of their number, value (turnover) and time difference, as well as price changes between transactions during the session on the main market of the WSE. In addition, this study is of significant value, due to an indication of the intraday pattern formation at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the situation that occurred in the WSE during the first phase of the pandemic was particularly interesting, due to the emergence of a large number of companies from the gaming sector (Tuszkiewicz 2022). These companies, which were indexed on the WSE, recorded remarkable profits, which translated into a significant impact on the entire market (Kubiczek and Derej 2021).
The paper aims to verify the existence of intraday liquidity patterns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Therefore, the following research questions were raised: did the intraday liquidity patterns show a distribution pattern? If so, how is the distribution shaped? What could be the reason for this? How has the pandemic outbreak affected the intraday patterns?
The structure of this paper is as follows. Section 2 presents the literature review on the multidimensional aspects of the liquidity of stock markets, with particular emphasis on intraday patterns and the impact of COVID-19. The characteristics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange are also presented in this section. Section 3 contains a description of the methodology used in the research, ie the rationale for the selection of the analysis period, the measures and statistical tests used. Section 4 introduces the research findings. The article ends with the discussion and conclusion, which are developed in Section 5 and Section 6 respectively.
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In developed capitalist economies, the stock market is a key element of the financial market because it fulfills its main functions – it ensures mobilization, transformation and capital appreciation (Levine and Zervos 1996; El Wassal 2013). By providing a mechanism, the stock market enables the transformation of savings into a source of finance for the real sector. Furthermore, the effective transformation of capital enables encouraging investment and thus mobilizes entities to invest capital (El Wassal 2013). A wide range of investment opportunities allows investors to find a financial instrument that meets their expectations and preferences.
It should be noted that the price formation and development of the stock market are determined by the dynamics of economic activity. At the same time, the situation on the stock market can influence or be an indicator of the social mood. According to Nofsinger (2005), the emotions of financial decision makers reflect the general level of optimism/pessimism in society. The emotions between the market participants are related (Nofsinger 2005). Therefore, it causes mood influenced by the decisions of all market actors, especially investors, positive mood-driven investments and thus an increase in economic activity.
The stock market is inextricably linked to economic development. The influence of the stock market on economic development takes place through many channels (Garcia and Liu 1999; El Wassal 2013). Understanding the power of the impact of individual determinants of the development of both the stock market and economic markets is one of the broader topics of research in recent decades. Levine and Zervos (1996), using cross-country growth regressions, show that long-term economic growth is positively and robustly related to the predefined component of stock market development. Studies by Caporale et al. (2004) show that the stock market supports economic development in the long term, strengthening economic power and transaction efficiency.
The development of the stock market is influenced by many determinants. According to the research of Garcia and Liu (1999), the most important are real income, savings rate, financial intermediary development and stock market. According to Levine (1991), liquidity in the stock market—the ability to trade stocks quickly—is essential to its development. A large number of economic entities clearly supports the liquidity of the stock market, but it is the number of transactions that determines it. The foundation of a well-functioning market is liquidity, which encourages more investors (Singh 2011). Stock market